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Retail Rate Forecast · RB-PEPCO-RES-01

Pepco Retail Rate Forecast

State: Maryland · DC Region: PJM Utility: Pepco Type: Forecast Status: Available now

A component-level forward forecast covering Pepco’s Maryland and District of Columbia service territories. Built from filed tariffs in both jurisdictions, the Maryland CSEGS and DC CREF program overlays, and active rate cases on both sides of the line.

What’s decomposed

Pepco operates a single transmission and distribution system across both jurisdictions but bills under separate tariffs regulated by the MPSC in Maryland and the DCPSC in DC. The forecast handles each jurisdiction cleanly, decomposing both into generation, capacity, T&D, and rider components with the relevant state program overlays layered on top.

Generation supply

Anchored to PJM forward energy curves, semi-annual SOS auctions in Maryland, and DC’s annual June Standard Offer Service procurement under Formula Case 1017.

Capacity recovery

PJM BRA-derived capacity flowed through both Maryland and DC retail recovery cadences, with separate jurisdictional pass-through timing.

Transmission & distribution

Two parallel forecasts: Maryland incorporating the base rate case filed October 2025; DC tracking the pending multiyear rate case remand hearing held May 12, 2026.

Program overlays

Maryland CSEGS (permanent successor to the pilot, with consolidated billing rules finalizing in 2026) and DC CREF tracked separately so subscribers can isolate each program’s economics.

Who this is for

Distributed solar developers underwriting community solar in either Pepco jurisdiction. Asset acquirers evaluating cross-border portfolios where Maryland and DC economics need to be priced separately. Project finance teams running portfolio analyses that mix CSEGS and CREF projects under a single utility footprint.

Methodology

Reconstruct both the Maryland and DC tariffs from filed schedules. Decompose each into generation, capacity, T&D, and rider components. Project forward using PJM wholesale curves, BRA models, and jurisdiction-specific T&D escalators built from each rate case’s procedural record. Deliver as Excel-ready forward curves (one per jurisdiction) with methodology memo. Refreshed when either rate case decision lands or when the DCPSC June 3, 2026 legislative hearing on generation costs produces output.